Oduya off the market

The New Jersey Devils have made another great move - this time they have re-signed D Johnny Oduya. His contract, rumored to be worth about $3 million per season is not below market value, but if he hit free agency, he probably would have been overpaid by a different team. Oduya is a bit underrated, but he has become a great defensive player, who can also chip in some points because of his passing and shot. He was one of the best D options on the market. This signing seems to have set the value of comparable defenseman at $3 million. This means that Dennis Seidenberg should get a similar contract.

The Draft pt. II - OIlers and Bolts are early winners

The second day of the draft always features players that were really hot names at the beginning of the season before later falling from the map and players that were unknown before exploding either at the WJC or U-18 WC.

Right now the Edmonton Oilers and Tampa Bay Lightning seem to be the big winners. The Bolts drafted the best defenseman in the draft - Victor Hedman and power forward Carter Ashton in the first round. In the second round they chose Richard Panik, who is said to be the biggest Slovakian talent since Gaborik - he was actually projected as a top-10 player in September, but didn't really capitalize on his chances in the WJC - nevertheless everyone knows that power forwards develop longer, so he could still have a great career. They followed this pick with 5'10 Alex Hutchins, the leading scorer of the OHL's Barrie Colts, who seems a bit similar to Martin St.Louis. Their next pick was a bit surprising - in the fourth round the Bolts went with goaltender Michael Zador - his 5-12-1 record in Oshawa is not something to be proud of, but it follows the tendency of drafting junior backups higher than starters (see: Adam Morrison - 2009 Philly, Jacob Deserres - 2008, Philly). In the fourth round Tampa Bay went with Jaroslav Janus, another goalie - he was the hero of team Slovakia at the WJC after he showed that he can win games on his own. With the last pick the Bolts went a bit off the board and selected Kirill Gotovets, a Belorussian defenseman playing for Shattuck-St. Mary's High School (and probably being a friend of the Bolts' owner's son). Despite the picks of Zador and Gotovets, this seems like a really strong group of players that could really shine alongside Tampa's Steven Stamkos.

The Oilers are not far behind - after picking Swedish superstar Magnus Paajarvi-Svenson with the 12th overall pick, they took his teammate Anton Lander in the second round, hoping they will have instant chemistry. They provided them some defensive support with the 6'2 Troy Hesketh, a future d-man for the University of Wisconsin Badgers. The next pick of the Oilers was arguably their worst one - RW Cameron Abney, a 6'4 throwback enforcer for the WHL's Everett Silvertips. Their next pick Kyle Bigos is a physical stay-at-home defenseman from the BCHL - he'll get a chance to show off his skills in the NCAA next year. The last two picks of the Oilers are what really separates them from other teams. With the 10th pick in the fourth round they chose Toni Rajala, the biggest Finnish offensive star of this years' draft, arguably the best player of the U-18 and the forward that embarrassed Hedman at the WJC. Rajala could be the fastest player of the draft, a great forechecker able to score goals - he was supposed to be drafted as high as in the mid twenties of the first round but he disappointed in the WJC and despite his play at the U-18 never really regained his status. His 5'8 size might be the only thing that keeps him from being an NHL star. In the fifth round the Oilers took the smallish goaltender Olivier Roy, also formerly projected to be taken during the draft's first day - he actually fell down in the rankings despite improving his stats in the QMJHL. He has great reflexes is solid positionally and could immediately become the top goalie prospect in Edmonton's system.

Dissecting Chris Pronger

The first day of the draft featured only one trade that involved actual players - but this one trade will surely be one of the biggest this offseason. The Philadelphia Flyers have acquired Chris Pronger (and career minor-leaguer Ryan Dingle) from the Anaheim Ducks for Joffrey Lupul, Luca Sbisa, two first-round picks (2009 and 2010) and a conditional third-round pick.

GM Paul Holmgren seems to be focusing on winning now. The 34 year old defenseman will be the second Norris Trophy winner on the Flyers all-time roster - Paul Coffey, who won it with the Oilers and Red Wings, is the only other one. He definitely makes the Flyers D better - they will be able to split him and Kimmo Timonen, when the opponents use two top lines (e.g. Crosby and Malkin) and pair them in tough situation. Pronger will be also the physical presence on the blueline that the Flyers were lacking.

The trade gets harder to defend, when you look at Pronger's contract situation and the assets the Flyers had to give up. Pronger's contract is only for the next year and although he stated that he would like to open negotiations on an extension and there are rumors that he chose the Flyers as his new home, it is still possible that Philadelphia could lose him next year. By trading Lupul (who was also traded for Pronger in the Oliers-Ducks deal) for him, the Flyers lose an additional $1 million in cap space. Thus the Flyers still have to trade someone (Briere?) for cap relief.

Lupul - a monster contract coupled with consistency problems was the perfect player to trade. By giving up Sbisa, the Flyers have given up their best defensive prospect - a 19 year old, that already has experience in the NHL and is by far a better talent than anyone in the Flyers system. If you add two first round picks - and the Flyers recently have a high success rate in the first round, the Flyers have given up a big part of their future.

Can the Flyers win the Cup with Emery in goal? If they will, it will be only because of the D - if Pronger leaves town without the Cup, the trade will be a bust.

The Draft pt. I

Tavares first, Hedman second, Duchene third - the first picks went just as expected. The Thrashers took their scorer in Kane, LA acquired yet another premier offensive player in Schenn and the Yotes got their top D prospect in Larsson. Magnus Paajarvi-Svenson joined the young core in Edmonton. The Islanders provided the surprise yet again by picking Calvin De Haan at no. 12 - ahead of such players as David Rundblad or Dmitri Kulikov.

Vancouver Canucks seem to be the big winners - they got potential game-breaking talent in Jordan Schroeder (rated by the CSS as the 4th North American skater) with the 22nd selection. Schroeder, a slick playmaker, outshined James Van Riemsdyk at the WJC. His size is the big concern (5'8), but his abilities should have caused him to be picked in the top 15 - especially after he had showed both in the NCAA and the WJC that he can compete with bigger players.

Strange comparisons

TSN.ca has published an article comparing John Tavares to Alexandre Daigle and Victor Hedman to Chris Pronger. There is always possibility that the Daigle/Pronger situation will repeat itself, but right now this comment has no basis. Tavares is a bigger talent than Daigle and actually has a lot more hockey sense and passion for the game. On the other hand it is Hedman, who failed to live up to the expectations at this year's WJC despite normally shining against older players in the SEL. The bias is strange, because in previous years, although the Daigle story was mentioned, the media were sure that the players were going to reach their potential. Even the Kane pick, which could have been easily doubted because of the winger's size, was not received with such comments.

A tough task for the Rangers

The New York Rangers currently have the following NHL players signed (according to nhlnumbers and HF Boards) - Henrik Lundqvist, defensemen Wade Redden, Michal Rozsival, Dan Girardi, Marc Staal, Bobby Sanguinetti and Michael Del Zotto, forwards Scott Gomez, Chris Drury, Sean Avery, Aaron Voros and Artem Anisimov. This means that they have to sign or acquire a backup goalie and 7 forwards. However this situation doesn't give the Rangers much flexibility. The contracts of Drury and Gomez are a burden to the team and some RFAs are crucial for the Rangers.

The Rangers will definitely try to re-sign Ryan Callahan, Lauri Korpikoski, Nik Antropov, Nik Zherdev and Brandon Dubinsky. The youngsters Callahan and Korpikoski shouldn't be a problem but if Zherdev and Antropov have too high expectations, they will have to be let go. Additionally Dubinsky's success will surely translate to a raise. The raises aren't a problem until you consider that the Rangers already have around $40 million spent. If Dubinsky demands $2 million and both Nik's around $4 million each (realistically there is a chance that they will want more), the Rangers might even have trouble completing the roster, especially after they give a new contract to Callahan.

Will Richards keep his star?

When Todd Richards was introduced as the new head coach of the Minnesota Wild, everyone pointed out his offensive style of coaching. This is of course an exaggeration by the Wild PR staff aimed at convincing Marian Gaborik to stay with the team - Richards' Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins finished in the middle of the pack in GF in 07/08 (223 GF, 77 behind league leading Chicago Wolves) and were fourth in 06/07 (276GF, 55 behind the Wolves). Fortunately for Gaborik there is no doubt that Richards' system will be less defensive than Jacques Lemaire's - simply because that Lemaire is the guru of the neutral zone trap and has completely avoided giving offense a key role. Will it be enough for Gaborik, who might have a yearly cap-hit in the range of $8 million?

It might, simply because the Slovak's health is a big issue - his first three years in the NHL were near perfect, but after the injuries started in 2003/04, he played only 70+ game season (07/08). For a lot of teams, especially in the salary cap era, this is a warning sign before giving him a big contract. Gaborik's agent should be aware of it - his delaying of negotiations might force Minnesota to offer the rightwinger a salary higher than they planned - and higher than Gaborik would have gotten from a different team as an UFA.

On Flyers' goaltending Pt. 2

Second post about Philly in a row, but quietly there's a lot going on for the Flyers. Paul Holmgren has confirmed that Martin Biron has fired his agent and TSN's Darren Dreger is saying that the Flyers are interested in bringing back Robert Esche.

The goaltending carousel continues in Philly - since 99-00 Philly's starters (at least for a short period of time) were John Vanbiesbrouck, Brian Boucher, Roman Cechmanek, Jeff Hackett, Robert Esche, Antero Niittymaki and Martin Biron. In the same period the New Jersey Devils had only one starter Martin Brodeur (he, obviously, didn't lose this label even when he was injured). The signing of Ray Emery continued the trend of getting goalies that were already past their prime. Only Niittymaki and Boucher where Philly's prospects, with Roman Cechmanek being drafted by the Flyers as a veteran from the Czech league. Because of the the fact that Cechmanek and Boucher where the only goalies from the above list that were able t carry the team on their backs, it is surprising to see Holmgren turn to former busts and not try to acquire (or develop) a young goaltender with lots of potential.

Esche played well for St'Petersburg SKA in the KHL last season, but his ability to successfully come back to the NHL is being questioned. He left the Flyers not because of contract reasons, but because his play cost the team games - during his last NHL season he, arguably, had the worst rebound control in the league. Giving the team to him and another reclamation project - Ray Emery is very risky and I dare say that has disaster written all over it.

Meanwhile Biron's contract demands were rumored to be in the $5-6 million dollar per season range - a sum the Flyers definitely couldn't afford, especially for a player who isn't worth that much. Biron was never a game-stealer - when he had his good games, he saved everything that he should have saved, but usually didn't have any spectacular stops - the perfect shots always went in. The firing of the agent suggests that Biron realized that his demands were too high and he had no chance of staying in Philly. Unfortunately it appears that the Flyers are looking for cheap players that have a history of great play and a chance of regaining their old form. Biron seems to have reached his peak a long time ago so he shouldn't end up back with Philly.

The Hatcher saga comes to an end

Derian Hatcher has announced that he won't come back to the NHL after undergoing knee replacement surgery. Hatcher, the only American-born player to captain a team to the Cup, didn't play since the end of the last year's playoffs - he spend the whole season on LTIR. His contract with the Flyers, one of the last moves by former Flyers' GM Bobby Clarke proved to be a complete failure - he was too slow for the "new NHL", he lacked the positioning play and was often injured. His retirement was obvious since last year, but he was kept on the team to ensure that he would get the full salary from his contract.

Hatcher will now replace Eric Desjardins - he will work with the Flyers prospects and younger players. This switch seems bad for the Flyers - Desjardins was the defenseman Philly is somewhat lacking right now - not physical, but superb positionally and able to lead the rush. Desjardins would have been an ideal candidate to help Luca Sbisa to take the next step. Hatcher's style of play and skillset, which will be reflected in his work as a development coach, might not be so suitable for the young d-man.

Shirokov finally makes it

According to The Vancouver Canucks have agreed to a deal with 23-year old Sergei Shirokov, the top scorer of CSKA Moscow in the KHL and former WJC star. In 2005 during the WJC he showed that his offensive skills were on par with Ovechkin and Malkin, but he became famous for taunting the American crowd during the semifinal game against the US. Nobody questioned his talent for scoring, but all of the teams were concerned with his size (5'10) and willingness to leave Russia. This is why he was drafted in the sixth round two years after becoming eligible for the draft. The Canucks seem to have convinced him to playing in the NHL. Although nobody knows how Shirkov will adapt to the North American style of play, the Canucks seem to have made a great move.

The Penguins win - Talbot triumphs

Sidney Crosby didn't step up, Evgeni Malkin didn't step up - it was Maxime Talbot, who won the Pens the Cup. The grinder scored two goals for the second time in these Finals and, with some help from the goaltending of Marc-Andre Fleury, gave the Pens the victory. Talbot, the Penguins 8th round pick in 2002, averaged 24 points in each of the last three regular seasons in Pittsburgh. Despite a 100-point season in the QMJHL, he has actually shown no progress in developing his scoring touch (his 80 career points in 261 games give him an average of 25 points per 82 games - almost the same as his three-year average). Nevertheless he has scored six points in seven games against the Red Wings - he was the key to the Penguins win not only in game 7, but also in the whole series.

The end is coming!

Stanley Cup Final, game 7 - there's nothing more exciting in hockey. The fact that the home team has won every game of the series, makes the Detroit Red Wings the favorite to win and gives them a big chance to become the first team to win the Cup twice in a row since the Red Wings of 1997-98. This is a real test for Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby - they are undoubtedly great players and true stars in the league. But they have to show that they can step up, that they are capable of completely dominating the opposing team in a game that really matters. This will also be a test of Sidney Crosby's leadership - coach Dan Bylsma has done everything possible to win the series and his line matching has been excellent (more on that on James Mirtle's blog here) - the rest is up to the players and Crosby is the key. The Penguins star has scored only three points in six games against the Wings (one in game 3, two in game 4) - he needs to give his teammates an example both off and on the ice. If he manages to do it, the Penguins still have a chance.

Another one for Heatley

After Bruce Garrioch published the report that Dany Heatley has asked for a trade, a lot of potential trade destination have been mentioned. As of right now only Minnesota and LA seem to have a chance and motives for the trade (if, of course, Garrioch is true). With Heatley carrying a cap-hit of $ 7.5 million for the next five seasons, both of those teams have necessary cap space - the Kings have Jack Johnson as their only signficant free agent and the Wild are looking at Heatley as a possible replacement for Marian Gaborik, who currently also has a $ 7.5 million cap-hit.

The Wild seem to have less tradeable assets than the Kings. The Wild's Benoit Pouliot seems to be past the sell high stage but Colton Gillies is an option - especially after coach Jacques Lemaire, who's style was a perfect fit for the rugged young forward, left the team. The new style of play might also make Jim Sheppard expendable. The Wild also have Josh Harding, stuck behind Niklas Backstrom and rumored to be shopped around. Meanwhile the Kings have a young team and a full cupboard of prospects - Jack Johnson is the frontrunner to be dealt, because of his contract demands, but the potential deal might also include Justin Williams. The Kings also might decide to part with one of their goaltenders - either Jon Quick or Erik Ersberg will have to go sooner or later to make room for Jonathan Bernier. The Kings dept allows them to trade one of their highly rated defensive prospects (Thomas Hickey, Colten Teubert, Vyacheslav Voinov), one young forward (Oscar Moller, Wayne Simmonds, Ted Purcell, Brian Boyle) and a roster player like Johnson for Heatley.

If Heatley really is being shopped, this makes the Kings the most probable destination. And if the trade happens, Heatley might help take Anze Kopitar to the 80-90 point level.

Image: kaatiya, source: Wikimedia Commons

Sutter steps down - will he stay there?

Brent Sutter's announcement on resigning as the New Jersey Devils' coach is a surprise. He was successful in the regular season but lost twice in the second round. The media are speculating that Brent will be hired by his brother Darryl to coach the Calgary Flames - although I think that he would be a perfect fit there, I'm not sure it will happen. The announcement was made from the offices of WHL's Red Deer Rebels, a team that Brent owns since 1999. He was always considered a great mentor for young players, a perfect coach of Canada's junior team, a real teacher. It was also visible in New Jersey - the progress of Zach Parise was not unexpected, but I dare think that it wouldn't be so rapid without Sutter. Brent's decision might be caused by his desire to come back to developing young players (like potential superstar Ryan Nugent-Hopkins) - something he was really successful at. Thus it wouldn't surprise me, if he decided not to come back to the NHL.

The Red Wings domination

A look at the Game 5 shots/hits chart on NHL.com reveals some interesting facts.

1. The shots chart shows that the first and third period were quite even, but the second was dominated by the Red Wings - the Penguins managed only six shots: four from just inside the blueline, two from center ice and one from their own blueline.

2. Most of the Red Wings 15 shots in the second period were from the slot and only three of them came from around the blueline (including Brian Rafalski's goal). The Red Wings actually had 7 total shots from around the blueline (and neutral zone), while the Pens had 12 - this means that 55% of the Pens' shots and 24% of the Red Wings' shots were from long range. This might be the reason for the Red Wings success - shots from the slot and other high risk areas.

3. According to the chart, there were only three open-ice hits - two by the Penguins. None of them happened in the second period. All other hits were along the boards - this means that both teams avoided leaving their positions to go for big hits.

Stat of the day: 6

6 - Darren Helm's career NHL playoff goals

Helm has played in 23 NHL regular season games during the last two seasons, scoring only one assist. In the playoffs he has played in 18 games last year (2 goals, 2 assists) and 20 so far this year (4 goals, one assist). A talented scorer in the WHL, Helm is showing that he knows how to step up when it matters. Despite playing a checking role, Helm's physical play and offensive talent makes him create chances almost every time he steps on the ice. In Game 4 his TOI was only 13:03, but he scored a goal, won 8 of 12 faceoffs, had 5 shots (only Hossa and Franzen had more) and 6 hits (most on the team). It looks like the Red Wings have found yet another gem.

The "answer" is Emery

When the Flyers were run by Bobby Clarke, everyone knew that he neglected the impact goaltending has on the team. As Paul Holmgren stepped in, the fans hoped that this will change. It appears that it hasn't - according to Chuck Gormley (Courier Post) the Flyers are set to sign Ray Emery to a one year, $2.5 million deal.

No one questions Emery's talent, it's his temper that has caused trouble. Sean Avery always wanted to be Brett Hull and Emery wants to be Ron Hextall. The difference here is that Hextall was a stellar goaltender who was really aggressive on the ice and Emery's antics continue off the ice - he fought with teammates, got pulled over by police for various violations and battled with management of his KHL team over contract issues.

If he is just a backup and doesn't cause conflicts in the locker room, he might be a good signing. But the situation is a bit deeper with both Martin Biron and Antero Niittymaki becoming UFAs on the 1st of July. Biron certainly wants a raise, despite being inconsistent and the management seems to have given up on Niittymaki. If Emery is signed, he could be the only goalie on the Flyers roster. It would be interesting to know whether the Flyers are really negotiating with Biron to return as a starter or hoping to sign or trade for a different goalie. There is also the possibility that they want to get another goalie of Emery's caliber ("Nitty", Tellqvist, Danis) and let them fight for the no. 1 status (making more cap space available for forwards and defencemen). The second option is probable but has a great chance of ending badly for the Flyers - there is no guarantee that the two mediocre goalies can lead to Flyers to a successful postseason.

Krejci's numbers

The Boston Bruins have resigned David Krejci to a three year contract with a cap hit of $3.75 million per year. In today's NHL that's a nice contract for a 22-year old 70+ point playmaker with great potential, especially when you factor in the great chemistry he has with Blake Wheeler. Despite his current injury, he's definitely worth that kind of money. On the other hand the Bruins are getting into a tight spot cap-wise - they still have their best goalscorer Phil Kessel to resign, along with one of the many positive surprises on this season's team Matt Hunwick. The underrated P.J. Axelsson's contract is also up this year. And the Bruins management cannot forget that next summer they'll have to resign Marc Savard (and he won't come cheap after getting more than point-per-game during his current $5 million per year conract). With the possibility of the cap being lower then, it's safe to say that the Bruins are hoping Krejci will be Savard's potential replacement.

Image: Dan4th Nicholas, Cambridge, MA, USA, source: Wikimedia Commons

Hull out, Nieuwendyk in

The Dallas Stars finally figured out that Brett Hull, one of the greatest goalscorers in the history of the league, is not a good GM, especially if he doesn't even have full power over the team (he and Les Jackson were co-GMs). His signing of Sean Avery wasn't as bad as everyone says, but it appears that he was not objective when he brought the controversial winger to Dallas. Avery was Hull's roommate with the Red Wings - he later admitted that his behavior was based on Hull's. The Stars GM appeared to see a bit of himself in Avery and gave him a second chance

It turned out badly, because Avery wasn't Hull - he is vocal, but not about his own greatness. Avery attacked opponents directly, while Hull tried to show his ego. Hull also had the numbers to back his comments up - even when he said that he was the smartest in the game, people thought about his 86-goal season and thought "maybe he's on to something". Failing to spot this difference lead to the Avery fiasco and to he's firing.

Is Nieuwendyk better? He was always a better leader than Hull, he also didn't make any controversial comments. Nevertheless he seems like Hull 2.0 - he has little managerial experience and is not far removed from his playing days (Hull retired in 2005/06 after the Phoenix fiasco, Nieuwendyk a year later). He might have the same problems as Hull - inexperience and personal relationships with many current players. It would be perfectly understandable if the Stars replaced Hull with someone experienced, who has held a front office position for a longer time (Ron Hextall?). Adding Nieuwendyk seems to be a good move, if only because he will be a real one-man GM, but expecting a big improvement in the way the Stars are run seems a bit too optimistic.