Tampa Bay surprises again

The Lightning have bought out forward Vaclav Prospal, thus ending his third career stint with the team. This buyout is important, not only because Tampa now has too many d-men and too few forwards, but also because it changes the UFA market significantly. The versatile (can play as C or LW) Prospal automatically becomes the second or third best available forward behind Alex Tanguay and Mats Sundin (if he doesn't retire). Additionally his cap hit should be lower than Tanguay's which might mean that he'll find a new home faster than the Canadian. He didn't have his best season last year, but no one in Tampa did, so this shouldn't scare off the teams looking for veteran scoring. Tanguay's negotiations have just gotten a lot more difficult - he use the argument that he is clearly the best option on left wing.

The triumphant return of Andy Delmore (sort of)

According to TSN the Detroit Red Wings have signed defenseman Andy Delmore, who spent the last two years in the DEL, to a two-way contract. A fantastic scorer, Delmore always was absolutely awful in his own zone - a quality that has always hindered his progress as a defenseman. Nevertheless he has cracked 30 points twice in Nashville and was one of two heroes of Philadelphia's playoff run in 1999-2000. He also managed to win the Eddie Shore Award as the AHL's best defenseman in 2005-2006.

It will be interesting to see whether he manages to crack Detroit's lineup. Lidstrom, Kronwall, Rafalski, Stuart and Ericsson seem to be untouchable - this leaves Lebda, Lilja and Delmore battling for the remaining spot in the lineup with one of the losers getting the 7th defenseman's spot in the pressbox. Depending on his cap hit (it hasn't been revealed yet), Delmore could make a run at pushing Lilja out of his spot - Detroit is one of the teams fighting for every Penny and Lilja, an UFA next year is being paid $1.25 million. Delmore also has a higher offensive ceiling than Lebda but he has to be paired with a great stay-at-home defenseman to be effective - fortunately the Red Wings have a lot of those.

Boston's plan?

After trading Aaron Ward back to the Canes for Patrick Eaves and announcing that they will buyout Eaves, the Boston Bruins were expected to sign their top goalscorer Phil Kessel. The yesterday's signing of Derek Morris shows this is not the case - their cap space has actually decreased, so a new contract to Kessel seems to be out of the question - at least until Bruin's GM Peter Chiarelli makes some other moves.

This might actually mean that the Bruins are exploring possibilities of trading Kessel, because his salary demands are too high. They have $4.2 million in cap-space and can trade Chuck Kobasew ($2.33 million) to free some space, but it might not be enough. Kessel showed his potential last season and might want as much as $6 million per year - the $533,000 space that would be left if he gets it might not be enough for the Bruins - if they want to make a run for the Cup, they need more financial flexibility.

The next rookie race

John Tavares, Victor Hedman, Matt Duchene, Evander Kane, Nazem Kadri and even Toni Rajala already have NHL contracts - not all of them will make their respective teams, but all will get a chance to get a spot in the NHL and fight to be the best rookie. Nikita Filatov and Alex Pietrangelo are still eligible, joining Cody Hodgson and Jordan Eberle as possible candidates for the Calder Trophy. James van Riemsdyk probably won't play with the Flyers due to his cap-hit - around $2 million with bonuses (Patrick Maroon is the rookie to root for in Philly) but his fellow 2007 draft pick Mikael Backlund from Calgary will be in the mix. The Rangers have as many as three off-the-board candidates in defensemen Mike Del Zotto, Ryan McDonagh and Bob Sanguinetti.

Who has the best chance to win? It appears that Filatov is the hottest name, especially if Ken Hitchcock gives him the icetime he deserves. Tavares is the biggest talent but he won't get much support in NY, thus might even be overtaken by Duchene. Pietrangelo is also a good pick, especially if the Blues have a strong beggining of the season. As for the next Versteeg, a player not expected to fight for any honors - Eric Tangradi, the prospect traded by the Ducks to the Penguins for Ryan Whitney, could be the one, because he has a great chance of making the roster on one of the top two lines - he has enough skill to play either with Crosby or with Malkin, but has never played pro hockey.

Gearing up for a trade?

The Minnesota Wild have signed Wade Dubielewicz, who played last year for AK Bars Kazan and the Columbus Blue Jackets, but is best known for leading the New York Islanders to a playoff appearance in 2006/07 with a shootout win in the last game of the season. This might be an indication of a possible trade of Josh Harding, who has a lot of talent but is stuck in Minnesota behind Niklas Backstrom. Dubielewicz had awful stats last year but this might have been caused by the problems with finding a right team - after he started in the KHL, he wanted to go back back to the Islanders, but was claimed off waivers by the Blue Jackets.

Antti Miettinen and some underrated stats

As a part of the season review on NHL.com.pl I was asked a question whether Antti Miettinen's good season was caused by the great chemistry with Andrew Brunette or was a sign of the Finn reaching his full potential. The answer? It actually wasn't a good season.

He scored at a great pace at the beginning of the season, but slowed down considerably towards the end (4 points in the last 20 games). In the end his 44 points in 82 games were only a slight improvement over his 82-game pace from a year ago (34 in 69 means 40 in 82). What was the cause of the drop in production in the second half? Increase in ice time - he was used to playing 12-14 minutes a night and in Minnesota he ended up with an ATOI of 18:17. During the first few months he played even more - this probably caused him to be too tired in April.

Furthermore the PROD stat given by ESPN (example here) - the average time spent on ice between points shows that he actually had two better seasons (05/06 and 07/08). This is also supported by his shot percentage.
05/06 - 30:50 PROD 10.3 SH%
06/07 - 42:25 PROD 7.8 SH%
07/08 - 28:24 PROD 11.0 SH%
08/09 - 34:03 PROD 8.1 SH%

The conclusion? According to these stats the 4 minute increase in ice time didn't help Miettinen - it made him less effective.

The new look Habs

The Montreal Canadiens seem to be one of the most active players on this year's market - after acquiring Scott Gomez, they have signed Travis Moen, Paul Mara, Jaroslav Spacek, Hal Gill, Brian Gionta and Mike Cammalleri. They also parted ways with Alexei Kovalev, Chris Higgins, Alex Tanguay, Robert Lang, Tom Kostopoulos, Mathieu Schneider, Patrice Brisebois, Saku Koivu, Mathieu Dandenault and Francis Bouillon. The result? A completely new line-up.

Gomez will be the new top center - he might play with both Gionta and Cammalleri on his wings, but it is also possible that one of them gets moved to the second line and one of the Kostitsyn brothers gets promoted. Despite Gionta and Cammalleri both being right wingers, the option of switching one of them to the left side seems to be the best - Gomez is the best playmaker on the team, so he should play with the best scorer - Cammalleri, but also with Gionta, because they have chemistry together after playing in New Jersey.

The Kostitsyns should form the second line with Tomas Plekanec (a RFA still to be signed), unless top prospect Max Pacioretty has a camp strong enough to jump up a line. Maxim Lapierre should be the center for the third line with the defensive forward Moen and Pacioretty, Matt D'Agostini (RFA) or Guillaume Latendresse (RFA), Glen Metropolit and Georges Laraque shouldn't play higher than on the fourth line.

The defense is as overcrowded as Tampa's - Andrei Markov and Roman Hamrlik are returning to be the top pair, while newcomers Spacek and Gill seem to be destined to be the second pairing. Paul Mara, looking to rebound after a subpar stint with the Rangers, should be challenging them for playing time. This leaves Josh Gorges and Ryan O'Byrne fighting for the sixth spot with the loser sitting in the pressbox. Unfortunately it also means that prospect P.K. Subban will probably not showcase his shot in the NHL this year.

Bolts stack their D

Last year, the Tampa Bay Lightning had a roster full of forwards and no defenseman. This year they are trying to compensate for their mistakes - they have signed an experienced backup goalie in Antero Niittymaki and d-men Matthias Ohlund, Kurtis Foster, Matt Walker as well as Victor Hedman, this year's second overall pick. They also still have the RFAs Matt Lashoff, Mike Lundin and Matt Smaby left to sign. Returning from last season are Andrej Meszaros, Paul Ranger, Lukas Krajicek and goalie Mike Smith.

The Smith-Niittymaki tandem has the potential to surprise everyone during the season. Smith was brilliant in autumn, but a concussion forced him to miss half of last season. Niitymaki is a former Olympic star, who seemed to regress after securing a roster spot with Philadelphia - this might have been caused not only by chronic hip injuries, but also by Reggie Lemelin, the recently fired Flyers' goalie coach, who was widely criticized for his inability to correct the goalies' technical mistakes without causing new ones. If the Finn leaves the injuries behind, he might challenge a healthy Smith for the starting spot.

On defense Victor Hedman seems to have a guaranteed spot, probably beside the veteran Matthias Ohlund, who was brought to Tampa to be the younger Swede's mentor. Meszaros is also safe and his abilities allow him to be paired with both an offensive and a defensive player. He should end up beside the two-way Paul Ranger or the stay-at-home Matt Walker. The battle for the sixth spot should be interesting - Lukas Krajicek is the most versatile and has a lot of potential, so he should have the inside track, but Lashoff, Boston's first round pick in 2005, really impressed as a power play quarterback last year. Foster cannot be discounted too - he has both skill and size to win this battle. If Lashoff doesn't make the top 6, it is safe to assume that one of the older guys - Foster or Krajicek gets the no. 7 spot.

Leafs at work

The Toronto Maple Leafs have made a couple of moves beside attracting NHL's attention in the form of a tampering investigation. They have signed the hyped Swedish goalie Jonas Gustavsson, the former Anaheim Ducks defenseman Francois Beauchemin and this year's seventh overall draft-pick Nazem Kadri.

The Beauchemin signing solidifies and overpays the blueline - the $3.8M (cap hit per year) seems to be a steep price for a player, who spent most of last season on the IR and who had a large spike in production when playing alongside either Chris Pronger or Scott Niedermayer. Kadri is a good signing. An excellent playmaker, he needs to build his muscles up, but could be a great player and a Calder Memorial Trophy candidate as soon as next season.

The story of Gustavsson is well known - a star in Sweden, the 6'3 goalie has never played in the NHL but was rumored to be the most sought after free agent this year. He had magnificent stats in the SEL, but his ability to smoothly transition to the NHL is a question mark. For some he is the second coming of Henrik Lundqvist - a relatively unknown goalie, who will get the opportunity of running away with the starting spot. For others he is another one in the line of "best players not in the NHL" (previously - Jiri Dopita, Fabian Brunnstrom or Roman Turek), who will fail in the NHL. As always, the truth is in the middle - Gustavsson probably won't be a Vezina candidate, but his size should help him to adapt to the North American game. Fortunately for Toronto his modest contract ($810,000 for one year) allows the Leafs to be patient with his development.

$2.7M per year - the value of a top checking center

John Madden signed with the Chicago Blackhawks for $2.75M (1 year) and Samuel Pahlsson with the Columbus Blue Jackets for $2.65M (3 years, 7.95M total) - salaries quite low by today's NHL standards (Rob Scuderi got $3.4M, Chris Neil got $2M). But actually what they bring to the table seems to be worth more - both players are top defensive centers, who have won Cups. Additionally Madden has a Selke Trophy and is capable of getting 40 points per season. Although they play a very important role in their teams, they seem to be underrated. This is especially surprising due to the NHL teams' tendency to overpay for all kinds of contributions. Madden's and Pahlsson's talents cannot be measured by stats, so they can disappear during the negotiations but their agents should be creative enough to work around it. It is also worth to notice that Madden has the scoring and the trophy but he got only $100,000 more than Pahlsson

The big three

The top three UFA forwards have found new teams. Marian Hossa went from Detroit to Chicago, Martin Havlat left Chicago for Minnesota to occupy the resident injury risk spot, which was abandoned by Marian Gaborik who joined the New York Rangers. Who won?

Marian Gaborik (27 years old) - New York Rangers - 5 years, $7.5 million cap hit
Marian Hossa (30 years old) - Chicago Blackhawks - 12 years, $5.23 million cap hit
Martin Havlat (28 years old) - Minnesota Wild - 6 years, $5 million cap hit

The length of Hossa's contract stands out, but it is because the Blackhawks wanted to keep the cap hit down (and succeeded - Hossa's injury history makes him the most valuable of the three). On the other hand Havlat, who had an almost injury-free season before suffering a concussion in the playoffs - this last injury should have made his value even lower, but this price still seems good, provided that Havlat plays about 70 games or more. Gaborik, also often injured, got a contract about equal to his value - he is an unquestionable star and is capable of putting up 100 points, but the injuries and Minnesota's defensive system have prevented him from doing so. However the length and the value of the contract in comparison to Havlat and Hossa don't look so good. The Rangers seem to have overpaid him, especially considering the injury risk and failed to guarantee his services for a longer period of time (which would additionally lower the cap hit).

Other signings - day one

The Capitals quickly found a way to replace Viktor Kozlov - they signed the aging Mike Knuble to a 2-year contract. Knuble is nothing more than a powerplay specialist right now and even in this role he tends to take unnecessary penalties - nevertheless he's capable of playing on the first PP unit and

The Flyers continued the reclamation project in goal by signing their former rookie star - 32-year old Brian Boucher. He was a star for Philly in 2000 and later with the Coyotes, but until last season his career was quickly spinning out of control. He found more confidence in San Jose and will get a chance to fight Ray Emery for the starting spot. It will be interesting to see whether his experience will help Emery to calm down.

Tampa Bay has finally acquired a steady stay-at-home veteran on D - Matthias Ohlund. This is actually a great move for the Lighting and their young defense. This might be the sign of the franchise finally turning things around after last years' crazy season.

Hossa till 42

Marian Hossa, the best player available through free agency, signed a 12 year, $5.85 million (cap hit) contract with the Chicago Blackhawks. This is a great contract for the next few years - $5,85 mil. is clearly below market value, although the length is scary. In 12 years Hossa will be 42 - it is safe to presume that his scoring will gradually fall and he will be ready for retirement in 6-8 years. After he retires, the cap hit will disappear from Chicago's payroll. Thus the length is just a way to bypass the cap - the league should look into ways of limiting such situation (maybe by introducing maximum length of contracts in the next CBA?).